Sunday, July 17, 2011

Lets talk about Shortstops shall we?

I thought of an awesome way to whore myself out on the internet to get more views!  Unfortunately for you it doesn't have anything to do with actual whoring or the work of actual whores, but instead it will utilize my large passion for baseball and baseball stats.  I figure the times I wrote about baseball were some of my more popular articles from my own blog I Sometimes Call Myself Chase Robertson, so maybe it would work here at RG as well.  Since it seems to be a topic of interest in the last decade or two, I will specifically discuss the top shortstops in the game so far in the 2011 season.  Enjoy.

This statistical binge was due to seeing about the 100th great defensive play this year from Asdrubal Cabrera (sorry I couldn't find the video for the other amazing no-look double play he made today) and instantly tracking down my brother to ask him if he thinks Cabrera is officially one of the top 3 Shortstops in the game now that Hanley Ramirez decided that since he already gave up hustling and giving a shit on the field, that he would also give up hitting as well.  Needless to say this led to a long conversation about the Shortstops in the game, and naturally that led me to Baseball-Reference.com, Microsoft Excel, and a sabermetrical creation of my own that I like to call Run Independent Hitting, which more or less uses raw statistics that are not (read: minimally) biased to what team the player plays for, and spits out an estimate for how many runs they should have produced given such statistics.  I will also clarify that I consider runs produced to be runs and RBI with home runs subtracted since you get one run and one RBI for a home run, but the team only gains one on the scoreboard, so you only produce one run.  Also, since at this point in the season there are players who have been injured and missed time, so I am ranking players not on how many runs my formula says they would produce, but rather how many runs they produce for every 27 outs they would make, or how many runs would be produced in a game if they were the entire offense.  Lets start with the stinkers!

Scraping the Bottom of the Barrel
Worst: Rafael Fucal, Los Angeles Dodgers
Not particularly fair to Furcal because he has only had 100 at bats on the season (which was the minimum at bats I counted), he is an above average Shortstop every other season, but I'm just going by the numbers.  Only 1.77 runs produced per 27 outs?  Sorry Rafael, you are playing like shit in those 100 at bats.
Maybe I should add some style points...
Second Worst: Reid Brignac, Tampa Bay Devil Rays
Maybe someone needs to exorcise Tampa's shortstop just like the team's name, when they lost the Devil they won the AL East, if Brignac loses whatever demons are haunting him he might get his OBP to a respectable level for batting average, or at least his slugging percentage.  2.27 would be a phenomenal number if it were runs given up per game, not runs produced.

Still Very Bad: Paul Janish, Cincinnati Reds Louisville Bats
Producing 2.76 runs for every 27 outs you make explains why this guy is 28 and back in AAA.

Boooooooo!: Brandon Crawford, San Francisco Giants
They aren't going to win the World Series again if they have a shortstop who isn't even producing 3 runs by the  time he makes 27 outs.  Luckily for them, he's young (24), his actual runs produced per 27 outs is 7, and he is one of three Giants Shortstops to be considered.

The King of Shit: Tsuyoshi Nishioka, Minnesota Twins
Just because they are Japanese doesn't mean they are going to play like Ichiro.  Since he only has 107 at bats maybe they could blame the RP/27 of 3.15 on "jetlag" or "culture shock".
I thought Tsuyoshi Shinjo would've scared GMs away from the name.

Below Average
Still Not Creating a Win
Alex Gonzalez, Atlanta Braves, 3.55 RP/27
Cliff Pennington, Oakland Athletics, 3.62 RP/27
Yuniesky Betancourt, Milwaukee Brewers, 3.62 RP/27
Miguel Tejada, San Francisco Giants, 3.81 RP/27
Ian Desmond, Washington Nationals, 3.87 RP/27
Edgar Renteria, Cincinnati Reds, 3.88 RP/27

This is using the assumption that you can equate 4 runs to a win, which is probably not true in reality but I've heard it before so I used it.  I like this list of players though, its either over-the-hill veterans or young kids... Except for Betancourt.

I Hope All These Guys Are Role Players
Elliot Johnson, Tampa Bay Rays, 4.35 RP/27
Jason Bartlett, San Diego Padres, 4.38 RP/27
Alcides Escobar, Kansas City Royals, 4.45 RP/27
Ronny Cedeno, Pittsburgh Pirates, 4.46 RP/27
Ryan Theriot, St. Louis Cardinals, 4.65 RP/27
Derek Jeter, New York Yankees, 4.95 RP/27
Marco Scutaro, Boston Red Sox, 4.98 RP/27
Clint Barmes, Houston Astros, 5.09 RP/27

These guys aren't ruining your team, they just aren't likely to win you many games.  I would also like to congratulate Derek Jeter (Captain Groundout) on his 3,000th career hit, at least he has something to be happy about during his abysmal season.  None, of these guys surprise me as being  below average shortstops, most of them are pretty dispensable.
Finally!  I'm done taking out the trash!
Above Average
Don't Mind Having Them Around
Stephen Drew, Arizona Diamondbacks, 5.53 RP/27
Alexei Ramirez, Chicago White Sox, 5.69 RP/27
Jed Lowrie, Boston Red Sox, 5.76 RP/27
Starlin Castro, Chicago Cubs, 5.97 RP/27
Jimmy Rollins, Philadelphia Phillies, 5.98 RP/27

Look at these names, now look again at the last group.  That's the difference between a below average Shortstop and an above average Shortstop.  Unfortunately for me I had to put both of my fantasy league Shortstops in this list, I hoped they would be higher.  Also I heard Jed Lowrie walks around the locker room without pants because he is very well endowed, isn't that interesting!
He is giggling about how big his penis is.
Keepers
Elvis Andrus, Texas Rangers, 6.02 RP/27
Hanley Ramirez, Florida Marlins, 6.10 RP/27
Jamey Carroll, Los Angeles Dodgers, 6.24 RP/27
Eduardo Nunez, New York Yankees, 6.35 RP/27
Mike Fontenot, San Francisco Giants, 6.42 RP/27
Erick Aybar, Los Angeles Angerls of Anaheim, 6.97 RP/27
Yunel Escobar, Toronto Blue Jays, 7.79 RP/27

Don't Jamey Carroll and Mike Fontenot stand out like sore thumbs on that list?  This is a strange place in the list because Nunez and Fontenot benefit from playing very well in a limited number of at bats, Carroll is randomly having a great year, and the rest are really good players.  What amazes me is how Yunel Escobar is the 6th best Shortstop, and he is far above Aybar, shows us how good these next 5 will be.

Cream of the Crop
Deserves the Money He Just Made: J.J. Hardy, Baltimore Orioles
Just recently signed a 3 year $22 Million extension with Baltimore, and I guess he might be earning that money thus far.  Completely snubbed from the All-Star Game, and I can't believe nobody else made much of a deal about it.  He was only slightly better than Yunel Escobar with 7.92 RP/27, but that is a phenomenal season.

Just 'Cause It Ain't September Yet: Troy Tulowitzki, Colorado Rockies
He is already producing 8.13 runs a game as a team, and that is before we realize that he usually doesn't warm up until mid-August.  I'm going to pencil him in for at least 9.5 by the end of the season and shit my pants on behalf of the rest of the N.L. West.  My personal pick for best Shortstop in the game.

The Conversation Piece: Asdrubal Cabrera, Cleveland Indians
So yes, Asdrubal Cabrera has currently cracked the top 3 Shortstops in the game as I previously suggested to my brother.  Please excuse me while I dance about being right.  Okay, I'm back.  Cabrera has 8.71 RP/27 and probably would give up about .4 runs per 27 outs defensively.  Yes, I am saying Asdrubal Cabrera could likely shut out a team if he pitched, caught and played every other position on the field.  He is either that good defensively, or so flashy that it deceives me.  His 8 errors probably suggests the latter, still top 3 shortstop in the game.
Every play he makes seems to be like this

Why Does Nobody Pay Attention To Him? Jhonny Peralta, Detroit Tigers
I expect this surprises a lot of people, but Peralta, much like every other positional player on the Tigers, is enjoying a great year with the bat.  He is over 3 runs better than average, with a 9.04 RP/27 and an All-Star appearance after Derek Jeter decided he was too tired to have fun or acknowledge his fans.  If the Tigers finally overtake the Indians for the AL Central crown, he will probably be a big deal.  Jhonny Peralta, remember the name.

NL MVP: Jose Reyes, New York Mets
The Mets can be proud of something, Reyes is incredible, and 30% better than Peralta with a RP/27 of 11.8.  124 hits, 185 total bases, 30 steals, .354/.398/.529, no more needs to be said.
He just always looks like he is having fun, I would too if I was the best at what I do.

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